Alex Gonzalez and the cast of Dickens Characters

I’ve already given my thoughts on Yunel Escobar’s value in another post.  They were lengthy, as they should be.  This trade was all about Yunel Escobar.  If Atlanta had complete confidence in his performance, the deal wouldn’t have been made.  Don’t dwell too much on the clubhouse stuff.  The clubhouse issues weren’t problematic when Yunel was productive.  Now, for the rest of the deal:

Alex Gonzalez – Gonzalez is a 33 year old SS who plays the position well, nearly as well as Yunel Escobar.  He doesn’t have Escobar’s range (he once did, but he’s 33 and it’s naturally declining), but he’s better at making the play in double play situations, and he makes fewer errors.  All in all, he’ll man the position well, though he will be a slight downgrade from Escobar.  With the bat, his rate stats are somewhat underwhelming this year.  I write this after 2 games with Atlanta, and his triple slash stats stand at .260/.301/.497.  The slugging % is keeping his offensive value afloat, but hey, his production this year has obviously outpaced that of Escobar.  Much has been made about Escobar’s low BABIP (though people don’t seem to notice Escobar’s dropping LD rate).  What about Gonzalez’s BABIP?  Right now it’s .277.  When you see that Gonzalez has a line drive rate of 20.4%, that BABIP looks even lower.  If Gonzalez got hits at an even rate, even if it’s just singles you add to his stat line, he’d be hitting .294/.331/.530 right now.  That’s a truer measure of how well Gonzalez has played this year, and that’s a pretty good batting line.  There’s no question that Yunel has been cheated on balls in play, but Gonzalez has been as well.

Then there’s the HR outburst, which naturally has fans yelling “fluke.”  Is it really, though?  It’s not like the power is newfound.  He’s HR-ing at a career high rate, at 12.7% HR/FB, but he has topped 10% twice before, in 2004 and 2007.  Despite claims that he benefited from playing at the Rogers Centre, his HR rate is as high on the road as it is at home.  2004 and 2007 were 2 years in which Gonzalez wasn’t afflicted with some sort of extended-time injury.  He is injury prone – there’s really no way to sugarcoat that – but when healthy, he has some history of having pop in his bat.

So, if Gonzalez has had this sort of power before, why hasn’t it shown up in the HR column as much until now?  Well, he’s simply hitting more fly balls and getting more playing time.  His current groundball rate of 30% is the lowest of his career, and perhaps that’s one reason his BABIP isn’t following rules similar to other players.  But, by the same token, his FB rate is its highest since 2004, which explains why the HRs are coming more frequently.  All in all, there’s no reason to think his performance will collapse.  The usual red flags aren’t there, and 33 isn’t the same as 37.  In other words, he’s still on the fringe of his prime.  Players have good seasons in their prime.  Guys who are naturally athletic tend to extend their primes better than those who aren’t.  Gonzalez’ power rate (HR/FB) will probably drop a bit, but as long as he stays healthy, so should his power numbers.  Whatever value is lost in that dropoff will probably be made up for by an improved BABIP.  Perhaps .324 is a bit much to expect with his high flyball rate, but either way, a .275/.320/.500 player isn’t that bad to have hitting 7th in your lineup, especially if he plays plus defense.

Now, for the Dickens characters that comprised the rest of the deal:

• Jo-Jo Reyes – This is a lesson in HR rates.  Jo-Jo is a good pitcher.  No, really.  Well, he almost is.  He has good K rates, solid BB rates, and has nearly all the peripherals you want to see in a young pitcher.  Except he gives up home runs.  Lots of them.  And, in AAA this year, it has gotten worse.  No one needed a new organization and a fresh start more than him.  Even if he goes on to find success in Toronto, I’m not sure you could count it as a loss for Atlanta.  He was unlikely to ever find success here.  Besides, his value is as a starter down the road, and with Atlanta’s wealth of pitching prospects, he was never going to realize that value here.
• Tyler Pastornicky – The 20 year old SS is hitting .258/.344/.376 in high A.  Always viewed as a solid speed and defense type player, if the power ever develops, he might have a future playing every day in the majors.  Atlanta has promoted him to AA, so we’ll have to keep an eye on how he takes to the high minors.  He has good on-base skills, and he’s only 20, so there’s still time to develop.
• “Tiny” Tim Collins – The most interesting part of this deal other than the two shortstops.  Despite a frame that is, by some reports generously listed at 5’7″, 155 lbs, Collins is a lefty reliever that racks up K’s by the bunches.  He has a deceptive delivery, and so we must temper expectations slightly, lest we learn nothing from the strange career of Yusmeiro Petit.  Luckily the scouting opinions on Collins are more upbeat.  He throws a fastball that is either around 91 mph or 95, depending on sources, and also has a good curveball.  As a lefty reliever, that’s pretty much all you need.  As for the stats… They’re mind-blowing.  In 194.2 minor league innings, he has 294 strikeouts (13.6 K/9).  It isn’t just a low-minors phenomenon either.  In 55.2 innings at AA, he has 90 K’s and 23 BB’s.  The BB rate isn’t fantastic, but it never is with young relievers that K that many.  He’s one to watch.

All in all, it’s hard to look at the trade objectively and either hate it or love it for Atlanta.  There’s really no evidence that Escobar is a lock to regain his power.  Gonzalez is productive but on the decline.  There’s very little chance this will do anything but help Atlanta in 2010.  Whatever value Escobar will provide over the next 3 seasons will likely be matched by 1 1/2 seasons of Gonzalez and the 12 years of service time we’ll get from the two prospects.  The downside here is that Escobar turns into an All-Star, but that was probably a stretch even when he was performing well.  The upside here is that Atlanta learned from their Jeff Francoeur situation, where they gave a player opportunity after opportunity to break his slump only to see his value drained to the point where all he could return in a trade was Ryan Church.

My final thought:  Whether it works or not, Atlanta is going for the kill this year, actively trying to improve a team that is already playing really well.  That’s an attitude that this Braves fan likes…

What to make of Yunel Escobar

There have been varying responses to this trade from Braves fans, ranging from those overjoyed at the improved team chemistry to those utterly dismayed at the Braves for trading away a talented player’s peak years.  Me?  I’m somewhere in the middle.  After looking closely at all players involved, I sort of shrugged and said, “Well… alright.”  Let me take you through my process, the first and most important step was figuring out how valuable Yunel Escobar was to the Braves:

Yunel Escobar was once seen as a known commodity, back when you could go swimming in the Gulf, back when perfect games and no-hitters were a rare thing in baseball.  Ahh… Simpler times.  Anyway, 2010 hasn’t really worked out for Yunel.  He got off to a miserable start in April.  When it was revealed he had an injured adductor muscle on April 29, he was hitting .215/.295/.266.  He took some time on the DL, which happened to be the 3rd straight year he had a hip injury of some sort.  Escobar has missed 53 games due to injury since the start of the 2008 season.  Upon his return, he was expected to rebound.  The only thing is…. it didn’t happen.  Since his return, he’s hitting .247/.351/.291.  Some fans will harp on his errors, and yes, there is value in making routine plays, but Yunel is a top-notch shortstop who saves more runs than he costs.  He’s very good defensively, so the only thing worth evaluating here is his contributions with the bat.  How legitimate is his overall .238/.334/.284 line?

The first thing you look at is BABIP.  Yunel’s is .270.  For someone with an 18.4% line drive rate, it should probably be closer to .300 or so.  If Yunel breaks even on balls in play and hits .300, his line improves to .264/.355/.310.  The problem is that, even with luck not working against him, Yunel has still had a terrible offensive season.  The reason for this is something that is far more within his control, which is far more troubling:  A loss of extra base hits.  One explanation would be if Yunel was hitting an inordinate amount of groundballs, but he isn’t.  His 50.9% GB rate is below his career average.  His LD rate is down, which helps explain his lower batting average, and his FB rate is at 30.7%, a career high.  11% of his flyballs don’t leave the infield, which is a serious problem that could probably be easily fixed, but for the other 89%, he still isn’t generating any power.

And therein lies the problem with Yunel so far this year.  His power is gone and I’m not sure what to expect from here on out.  Could it return?  Certainly.  Might it not?  That’s possible too.  It’s difficult to predict, but after several hip injuries over the last few years, it wouldn’t surprise me if a player who depends so much on hip motion to generate his power simply can’t generate it anymore.  Unlike BABIP, this isn’t something that’s going to just right itself by Yunel continuing to do the same thing.  If this is fixable, it’s probably going to require an off-season of rest.  Sitting in first place and gunning for a World Series championship, the Braves can’t afford to wait for that, especially considering it might never come.

Is it selling low to trade him now?  Maybe, but cutting your losses isn’t the same as selling low.  Selling low assumes the value will return one day.  There’s no real guarantee of that happening.  Sure, we all wish the Braves could go back in time and trade Escobar when he was highly regarded, but there’s no certainty we’ll ever see that day again.  This really boils down to the Atlanta scouting department and nothing else.  They obviously think Escobar’s productive days are likely over.

While I can’t know that they’re correct, I certainly have no reason to disagree.  I’ll have to cover Alex Gonzalez and the rest of the trade in another post.

Trade

I’ll let someone else do a more thorough take-down – or I might do it myself, I don’t even know – but this Escobar trade is some bullshit. I’ve been pretty ambivalent in regards to Wren, but this is really, really dumb.

Edit:

Okay, I can’t help myself. I’m pissed, and let’s see if I’m right. First, obviously, the players involved:

From the Braves – Yunel Escobar, Jo-Jo Reyes

From the Blue Jays – Alex Gonzalez (yay! Alex Gonzalez! Because he won’t regress due to changing teams and ballparks and, y’know, not being a very good offensive baseball player), Tim Collins, Tyler Pastornicky.

In terms of the minor league players, it’s a pretty neat haul for the Braves. Collins is a small (5-7, 155 lb.) starter somewhat in the Kris Medlen mold in physical traits and statistical success throughout the minor leagues. He throws a good fastball (93 MPH-ish) and a 12-6 curve. Jo-Jo Reyes probably wasn’t ever going to contribute to the Braves, mostly ’cause I don’t imagine he’d ever have gotten another real chance. Right or wrong (and it might end up looking wrong – it’s not inconceivable that Reyes helps out the ‘Jays in the rotation) they got what’ll probably end up being a solid bullpen piece/starting depth and gave up just about nothing from their perspective (in MiLB guys, again – we’ll get to Escobar later).

Pastornicky is a speedy shortstop – there are apparently questions about whether he can stick there, but nothing too major – with contact skills and no power. Wouldn’t project him as a starter unless he can maintain his 11.2% walk rate  all the way up from high-A ball, but seems like the type of player that’s very rosterable as a bench player for a few years.

Time for the cream of the crop, though. Yunel Escobar versus Alex Gonzalez. Sure you can guess where this’ll go, but let’s get down to it.

Escobar is a fine, fine player whose had a very down first half with the bat. But, at the same time, he’s walked more than ever before (12.3%) and his strikeouts have been flat. His utter lack of power is a bit scary, but I have a ton of trouble thinking that’s anything but sample size. He posted a 4.3 win season last year, and his defense has been better than ever in ’10 (+/- in particular thinks he’s been otherworldly, at 21 DRS [Defensive Runs Saved] so far this year), leading to a still reasonable 1 win tally so far this year – that’s calculated with UZR, by the way, which thinks he’s been good, but not awe-inspiring, at 4.4 runs saved in the first half. Escobar also has three more years of team control (in arbitration) following 2010, which is extremely valuable.

Gonzalez…not so much. He’s having a career half, and still has gotten on base at just a .296 clip. Which is not to say he hasn’t been valuable. He has. 2.4 WAR so far this year. But it’s mainly been driven by power numbers that simply won’t last moving to a more pitcher friendly ballpark (not that they would’ve lasted in Toronto. His regression is inevitable wherever he plays, but it’ll be worse at Turner). He could provide good value if he maintains some of his pop and keeps playing strong defense (3.1 UZR, backed up by career numbers). And he is cheap, at $2.75 million for this year with a $2.5 club option for next season.

But still, I just don’t get it, even with the minor leaguers factored in. This is the epitome of buying high and selling low. I mean, they could’ve at least let Yunel get on a hot streak and dealt him off for something better if they were that upset with his attitude (which is the excuse I’ve heard bandied about a lot in regards to the trade). C’mon, Wren. This is simple stuff.

Ed: the linked Jack Moore post below should also be noted. More bad news, alas, but the analysis is strong and, frankly, something I should’ve looked at myself before making this post

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/beware-the-jays-sluggers/

A Quick Note on Injuries

Been hearing a lot about how getting Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth back from injury will be a shot in the arm for the Braves (what with two nationally televised games and all). Now, obviously getting Heyward back will be huge, but as far as McLouth goes, well, it’s easy to forget just how bad he was playing before he was injured. A lot of his struggles were luck related, yes, and just about anybody is better than Melky Cabrera, but if McLouth continues on the pace he was pre-collision, getting him back might be less of a shot in the arm and more like, y’know, actually getting shot in the arm.

Should the Braves Wear Sunglasses At Night?

One name linked with the Braves recently has been Corey Hart.  Would that be a smart move for Atlanta?  In order to answer that, we have to realistically assess what we have going from this point forward.

LF: Eric Hinske is a necessity in the lineup against right-handed pitchers.  He’s hitting .301/.366/.521 against righties.  There’s really nothing to improve on there.  Hinske isn’t great defensively, but he has been worth 0.9 WAR so far, with another 0.8 projected for the rest of the year.  His righthanded counterpart right now is Matt Diaz.  Projecting Diaz could be tough.  His sample for 2010 is pretty small, so it’s wiser to look at Diaz since the beginning of 2009 in order to project his value from this point forward.  Using that, he projects to be worth about 0.7 WAR from this point forward.  If both players are in a strict platoon, they’re less likely to perform negatively, so I’d bump both totals up by 0.1, giving us a total of 0.9 for Hinske and 0.8 for Diaz.

CF:  Nate McLouth remains on the DL, but Melky Cabrera has been improving since he began playing regularly in CF.  He has even turned in an above average defensive performance in center.  He’s still best as a 4th OF, but at least he is deserving of his roster spot.  Cabrera should be able to contribute somewhere around 0.6 WAR from this point on.  McLouth isn’t a lost cause, either.  He isn’t an All-Star, but he could possibly return to the form of 2009 upon his return.  I think he could be worth as much as 1.0 WAR, depending on his defense.  If it’s poor, that’s closer to 0.5 or so…  I’ll be safe and call it at 0.7 WAR.

RF: There isn’t much point in discussing it, because Jason Heyward, whenever he returns from his injury, will get all the plate appearances here.  His defense is solid and so is his offense.  Even if he maintains his same performance level, he’ll be worth 1.8 WAR.

Now, what about Hart?  Hart is hitting .281/.346/.570 in what has been a resurgent season for the once-promising outfielder.  The return of his power is the biggest reason for his turnaround.  His HR/Fly ball rate of 18.2% is a career high and ranks among the league’s best.  Really, not much else has changed.  He walks about 9% of the time, K’s about 22% of the time and doesn’t really hit many line drives.  For Hart the key really is making sure that enough fly balls turn into homers.  He’s not a complete waste of a player otherwise.  It’s just that without the home runs, there’s just not enough to set him apart from most players.  So, is the power surge a fluke?  Is it ballpark aided?  It doesn’t seem to be the latter.  10 homers at Miller Park compared to 8 on the road.  The average distance of his HRs is 396 ft, which is right at the major league average.  There’s really no reason for me to believe it is a fluke.  So, if we assume Hart can continue at his current level of play, he should be worth 2.0 WAR from this point on.  That would be an upgrade over any Atlanta OF, even Jason Heyward.

There’s just one problem.  Hart plays right field, and moving him to LF could make his already poor defense even more glaring.  Perhaps not – after all, Manny Ramirez has somehow made it work – but in all likelihood, his lack of mobility (statues think he’s a little slow to react) will hurt his value.  He hasn’t manned CF since 2007.  His arm is adequate.  He just doesn’t have the range he used to.  A move to left field might or might not cause problems.  I can’t really be sure.  For the sake of optimism, let’s say it doesn’t.  Hart would replace Diaz’ 0.8 WAR, but he wouldn’t replace it with his 2.0.  He’d get Diaz’ AB’s, not Diaz+Hinske’s.  That would limit Hart’s value to 1.1 WAR, which would be a net gain of 0.3.

If Hart is capable of playing CF, he’d give Atlanta much more value.  As a full-time player, he’d be an upgrade of 0.7 WAR.  That said, I’m not sure he is.

The pertinent question here is NOT whether Hart would be good for Atlanta.  Of course he would.  Any player better than the worst player on your roster would be an upgrade, and I think Hart provides more value than Gregor Blanco.  He’s also under team control for 2011, where he is arbitration eligible.  The question is, what exactly is he worth to Atlanta, and how does that compare to what Milwaukee would want for him?

To Atlanta, I think he’d be worth around 0.7 wins this year, and possibly around 3.0 WAR next year.  There’s some monetary value in winning games.  Roughly, that comes out to $3,500,000 this year and $12,000,000 next.  Given what he’ll be paid (about $2,500,000 remains on his 2010 contract), we’d get a surplus value of $5,000,000 or so.  What would or should Atlanta trade for that?

I’ve read up on different prospect valuations, and generally, elite prospects are valued around $10,000,000+, those ranked in the 11-50 range are around $5,000,000, those in the 51-100 range are around $2,500,000, and others are worth around $750,000.

Atlanta could part with one top prospect for Hart, and no more.  Or, they could throw two good prospects together.  Or, they could pair one good prospect with 2 or 3 fringe prospects.

With all that said, if the Braves are going to part with any top prospects for Hart, they better be CERTAIN he can man all 3 outfield spots, because if not, his value is so limited that he really won’t be worth the price we pay.  If you can get him for one prospect in the 51-100 range, or even less than that, then do it.  However, I don’t see Milwaukee giving him up for so little.  So if it comes down to giving up one of our 3 or 4 top pitching prospects, I think in all likelihood, Atlanta should probably pass on Corey Hart.

Finding a trading partner: Cleveland

The non-waiver trade deadline is only 6 weeks away, so it’s time to start examining what sort of improvements you want to make.  You already know who some of the buyers and sellers will be, so to an extent, you can go ahead and find some trading partners.  Cleveland isn’t necessarily the best fit or the most likely for Atlanta.  They’re simply the first “seller” that I looked at.

First, what are Atlanta’s needs?  Atlanta needs some sort of offense in LF/CF.  Eric Hinske is doing a fine job this year, but being able to keep him in a utility role would have its value.  He could spell Chipper at 3rd and give Troy Glaus an occasional night off.  I’m not suggesting taking him out of the LF picture altogether, either.  That said, he really shouldn’t be in the lineup against southpaws.  I suppose Matt Diaz could solve that problem when he returns, but I’m not sure how effective he’ll be returning from thumb surgery, nor do I know how long his return will take.  Even if LF works itself out, we still have an offensive hole in CF in the form of Nate McLouth (well, right now our offensive hole is in the form of Gregor Blanco).  I don’t know what’s happened to McLouth, but the ship doesn’t appear to have signs of righting itself anytime soon.  The Braves need to fix their CF problem.  They could try to do so internally with Blanco or Jordan Schafer.  Schafer would be an upgrade in value.  He’s better defensively and isn’t likely to do worse offensively.  Then again, I’m pretty sure a relief pitcher isn’t likely to do worse offensively.  Speaking of defense, which I did two sentences ago, Atlanta could stand to upgrade the D here and there (8th in MLB in defensive efficiency, so maybe not, but our UZR as a team is pretty low).  Finally, it wouldn’t hurt to add a starting pitcher.  I know what you’re thinking – when Jurrjens returns we’ll already have 6 starters, so why would we need 7?  First, depth never hurt anyone.  Second, some of our starters might fit better in the bullpen.  Kenshin Kawakami has been unfairly derided for his W-L record, and he has been rightly defended in the face of it, but the fact remains he’s not a very good starting pitcher.  Kawakami would be, however, a very good multi-inning reliever, in my opinion.  Up to 75 pitches, he’s pretty effective.  He just doesn’t have as large a gas tank, it seems, because he blows up after that.  Kris Medlen is very much the same way, except more extreme.  Medlen has given us 4 quality starts in 7, which isn’t bad, but realistically he’s better suited for the bullpen.

So, back to Cleveland.  How could they help us?

Fausto Carmona would probably be available.  He’d be worth about $4 million this year, but we’d only net about $2,000,000 after paying him.  He’s also signed for $6,100,000 next year and has affordable options for 2012-2014.  He’s likely to be worth whatever we pay him this year and next, and probably a little more than that.  Carmona is a bargain.  However, for only a net value of about $2,000,000 or so, we wouldn’t have to give up a lot to get him.  Two C-type prospects would probably get the job done.  A package of Brett DeVall and Cody Johnson might be enough.  Even if we gave up JJ Hoover instead of Devall, it’d be worth it, IMO.

With Carmona in tow, we’d have a starting rotation of Hudson / Lowe / Carmona / Hanson / Jurrjens… Medlen could go back to excelling in the bullpen and Kawakami could try to find a niche there as well.  It’d strengthen our already-awesome bullpen and it’d help the rotation as well.  Carmona is pitching more like 2007 than he did in either of the last two years.  He’s throwing his fastball more effectively, and he’s using his slider more often.  What this has done is made his changeup deadlier than before.  He’s still a heavy groundball pitcher, so stepping into an infield including Martin Prado, Troy Glaus, and Chipper Jones might not be the BEST fit (although Yunel Escobar could probably make up for all of them).

The next player that pops up is Jake Westbrook.  I estimate he’ll provide about $3.5 million in value, but he’d be owed over $5,000,000 in salary.  So, that’s a net loss.  Atlanta would owe the Indians a non-prospect AND the Indians would have to eat some salary in order for this to be palatable.  He’s not likely to be a type A free agent, so there’s nothing to gain there either.  If the Indians would pick up 40% of his remaining salary and accept an F-level non-prospect, the Braves could bring Jake Westbrook to his home state.  He’s similar to Carmona, but not quite as good.  He’s throwing his slider more than ever, and with more effectiveness.  He has managed to slow down his changeup without sacrificing fastball velocity, which has made the changeup more effective.  Unfortunately, his curve has all but disappeared, and that was one of his better pitches in the past.  The pitch changes are getting more swings at pitches outside the K zone than any point in his career.  Unfortunately, that might just be because he’s throwing fewer strikes than at any point.  Really, I don’t know what sort of incentive Cleveland would have to trade him, other than just to shed a portion of his salary.  So, I’ll look elsewhere on the Cleveland roster.

Austin Kearns should be available.  I estimate he’ll be worth about $3.3 million throughout the rest of the season.  Kearns is only owed $750,000 this year, and we’d pay just a portion of that.  So, really, Cleveland could command a bit more for him.  With a net gain of around $2,500,000 in value, Kearns would bring the same package that Carmona would, in my opinion.  Kearns isn’t a star, but he would be a right-handed complement to Hinske in LF.  Kearns is also capable defensively in CF, or has been in recent years.  He currently has a .291/.378/.481 line, which might not make any all-star teams, but it would represent a significant upgrade in our outfield.  He’s versatile and can play all 3 OF positions.  IMO, the Braves should scout Austin Kearns and give him a good look.  Cody Johnson/Brett Devall would definitely do the trick.

What would it take to acquire both Kearns and Carmona?  Probably a star prospect OR a bundle of 1 solid prospect and 3 C-level prospects.  Like: Zeke Spruill / Brett DeVall / Cody Johnson / Brandon Hicks

I’m not sure if they’re the best fit, and there’s a very good chance I find better fits on another team, but both players would probably make Atlanta more likely to reach the playoffs.

Chris Resop’s odd contract

Some of you may have heard about Chris Resop’s slightly bizarre contract situation: on June 15th, the Braves either have to promote him or offer him to all the other MLB clubs – basically putting him through waivers. Didn’t really seem like it would be a big deal – not like they couldn’t have gotten him through waivers many times before – but since being transitioned to the starting rotation in AAA, he’s experienced a bit of a surge in value. His most recent start stands out the most – complete game, 1 hit, 8 K’s, 0 walks. But he’s been good all year, getting almost a 50% GB rate with a 28.9 K% (MLB average being 16%). The Braves brass now have a legitimate choice to make, although I think it’s a fairly easy one…

…bring the guy up! He’s 27 years old, which is not great as a prospect, but not that old. And the Braves are carrying Christian freakin’ Betancourt on the roster. Enough said.

Medlen’s bizarre outing

First of all, if any of you are wondering, Kris Medlen is fine. He strained his left (non-throwing shoulder) on an awkward slide into home plate in the top of the 6th inning last night (video here – and it’s pretty cool, effective slide). That’s health. As far as performance goes…Kris Medlen is fine. He’s been giving up too many fly balls – although that’s a trend that he had reversed in recent starts – and it caught up to him last night. He didn’t walk anyone, same as his last start, which is terrific. He could use some more K’s, but I think that’ll come around a bit, and it’s not a huge deal when he’s controlling his walks like this. And I don’t even think the fly balls are a real issue, since he’d reversed his GB/FB in his last couple starts, and the Diamondbacks hit a lot of flies on everybody – fourth in the league.

But, oddly enough, Medlen was a lot more interesting at the plate last night – he went 1-1 with 2 BB, drove in one run and scored two more. He posted a .108 offensive WPA, mostly due to all of his impact coming fairly early in the game and when the game was still close. Both factors hold for his outing on the mound, as he had a -.150 mark there. Turns out to a pretty tepid -.42, but not the most common way to get there.

Memorial Day Inventory, Part 2

Yes, I know, it’s no longer Memorial Day.  Moving on…

LF (0.3 WAR)
Melky Cabrera: .226/.297/.283 – Cabrera has been a disappointment.  Acquired as a 4th OF with potential to play every day, Cabrera has cemented his 4th OF status.  His defense has been unimpressive.  His offense has been worse.  In fact, having a replacement level player instead of Melky would have probably netted the Braves an extra win in the standings to this point.  A line that bad is really the result of a perfect storm of  many things going wrong.  He isn’t hitting line drives.  He isn’t hitting homers.  He’s striking out more.  He’s not hitting lefties or righties.  He’s taking more strikes than ever before.  He’s swinging at more balls.  Oh, and luck hasn’t really been on his side either.  I’m really not sure what to expect from him at this point.  At most, he should be a 5th OF.  Ideally, he’d be in Gwinnett.  Unfortunately, no one at Gwinnett is really knocking on the door either.
Eric Hinske: .313/.380/.552 – Hinske has been better than expected, because he’s playing better than he has in the past.  Right now he’s better than his career averages in strikeout rate, HR/FB, and most importantly, line drive rate.  His LD rate of 26% has led to a .371 BABIP.  He’s a solid defender in left, though unspectacular.  All in all, he’s been one of Atlanta’s most important players this year.

CF (-0.4 WAR)
Nate McLouth: .176/.297/.285 – Is this the kind of season you find out, sometime around October or November, was caused by some sort of hidden injury?  McLouth’s K rate has spiked alarmingly.  His BB rate is up as well, though, and there’s been no discernible difference in his plate judgement.  He’s making contact as well when he swings.  He’s just hardly swinging.  I’m not sure what the problem is, nor am I sure whether it’s something that will turn around or not.  I have no reason to think it won’t.  His LD rate is in line with last year but his BABIP has been a miserable .220.  That will correct itself.  The BA will improve.  I’m guessing he hits .250/.340/.430 from here on out.  There’s not a lot of value in that, especially from a CF whose defense is average-at-best, but usually subpar.

RF (1.5 WAR)
Jason Heyward: Unless you live under a rock, you know all about Jason Heyward and why he’s awesome.  I point you to Dave Woody’s remarkable post on Heyward.  He’s Atlanta’s best player, a sure-fire All-Star, and the dead favorite for Rookie of the Year.  Hell, he’s right in the middle of the MVP race, if you ask me.  And if you’re a skeptic asking yourself “is he really this good?”  The answer is yes.  The last time I saw a player this advanced in his rookie season, I too doubted him.  That player was Albert Pujols.

Other OF’s:
Matt Diaz: .178/.231/.247 – Diaz, unlike Cabrera, is a good bet to turn things around when he returns.  His line drive rate is over 20%, so we know the hits will eventually fall.  His BABIP has been a cruel .245 so far.  He’s an asset on the basepaths as well.  Diaz struggled badly when everyone on the team struggled, and unlike the others, he didn’t get to participate in May’s month of redemption.  I suppose this has left him out of favor with fans, which is somewhat unfair.  Diaz has been a solid contributor since he set foot in Atlanta.  He’s a streaky hitter, but that isn’t to say he has no value.  He is a solid defender and, upon his return, a good bet to hit .290/.340/.430 for the rest of the season.

Brent Clevlen: .250/.250/.500 – Solid defender trying to break that AAAA mold.

Gregor Blanco: 1.000 / 1.000 / 1.500 – He’s fast and can draw walks.  Other than that, he doesn’t do much.  But… He’s fast… and can draw a lot of walks.

I’ll finish up with the pitchers soon…

Is Jason Heyward a Generational Talent?

After reading Tim Marchman’s excellent post on Jason Heyward and Dave Cameron’s nice piece last week, I thought it might be fun to delve into the numbers a bit more deeply to see if Heyward really does profile as a generational talent going forward.  Before I even get started, I feel obligated to add the caveat that this type of analysis is probably the hardest kind to do with any degree of certainty; that is, trying to predict the next 20 or so years of production based on a single 47 game sample in the Majors, and a couple of seasons in the low minors.  Be that as it may, here goes.

As Marchman points out, only Mel Ott and Ty Cobb produced better numbers as 20-year-olds than Heyward has to this point.  Some others who came close: Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Alex Rodriguez, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby, Jimmie Foxx, and Frank Robinson.  As Cameron mentions, Albert Pujols recently posted better numbers as a rookie than Heyward currently has, but Albert was 21 and Heyward is 20, and Heyward has probably not truly hit his stride yet this year.

This leads me to my main thesis: Heyward is going to get better–and in all probability, much better–over the next four months.  What’s my evidence to support that claim?  I’m glad you asked.

• He hasn’t been hit-lucky thus far.

Heyward’s BABIP of .319 is only slightly above the league-average of .297, and even more telling, it’s actually below his .321 xBABIP.  As we all know, results are not perfectly correlated to performance in this game, and doubly so in small samples.  But in this particular case, we can judge Heyward’s production knowing that Lady Luck hasn’t unduly influenced his results to this point.

• His combination of patience and power is both uncommon and telling.

From Marchman’s article:

Name	Oba/Slg through 41 games	Rest of year
Mel Ott	.461/.651	.444/.629
Al Kaline	.435/.589	.416/.529
Mickey Mantle	.375/.475	.402/.552
Alex Rodriguez	.399/.677	.420/.614
Ted Williams	.366/.566	.461/.627
Jimmie Foxx	.429/.700	.411/.474
Frank Robinson	.370/.555	.381/.559
Jason Heyward	.415/.578	???

Conclusion: When any player displays that amount of both patience and power over his first 41 games at such a young age, the results are indicative of elite future performance.  Heyward’s plate discipline sets him apart from most power hitters and places him in extraordinary historical context.  It’s early, yes, and the rate stats of OBA and slugging have not stabilized yet.  At 500 PA, we’ll know a lot more.  He’s nearly at 200 PA, though, so we cannot dismiss his numbers outright.  They come with a sample size caveat, but do not warrant a sample size dismissal.  This is doubly so when we consider that in 1003 minor league PA, he accumulated a .391 OBA and slugged .508.  All of the scouts said that the slugging was only this low because he wasn’t getting many pitches to hit, and it would go up once he got to the Majors.  It appears they were right.  This is no fluke or sample size issue; these rate stats are real.

• Finally, he’s likely to get better.

Heyward has already shown the ability to make adjustments.  After striking out on low breaking balls four times against the Giants on April 10th, Heyward came back to go 3-3 with an opposite field homer and 2 walks the next day.  Want a bigger sample?  Cameron points out that Heyward struck out 26 times in 89 PA in April, then only 5 times in his first 70 PA of May, without losing any power.  He hasn’t really gone on a tear yet.  He’s put up a .292/.410/.578 line while leading the league in WPA.  What happens when he hits .340 for a few months?

There is a significant difference between Heyward and most other prospects, and it is his once-in-a-generation combination of plate discipline and power.  It may become increasingly useful to compare him to other players only in a historical context, as Marchman and Cameron have done.  What Heyward has done and what he is likely to do in the near future is special, and I’m privileged to be able to witness it in my lifetime.

Note: I submitted this article to Fangraphs Community Research about a week ago, but since they didn’t post it, I’m publishing it here.