Why the Braves will win the NL East

There are an almost infinite number of factors that determine the outcome of a 162 game baseball season.  The “experts” on most sports websites as well as the “experts” in Las Vegas who set the betting odds all seem to agree that the Philadelphia Phillies are going to run away with the National League East in 2011.  I’d like to use this space to provide some reasons why they won’t.

For the regular season this year, a lot of it is going to depend on Chase Utley.  I’ve heard reports that differ dramatically–all the way from “he’s going to be back in mid-May and he’ll be 100% ready to go and the injury won’t cause him any problems for the rest of the year” to “he’s for sure going to need surgery which will end his season, the only question is when.”  Ruben Amaro is saying the former, Stephania Bell of ESPN is saying the latter.  One of those sources is biased and one is unbiased.  I guess time alone will tell.

In a broader sense, it makes sense to take a step back and look at both teams as a whole.  There are only two things you can do as a team to win baseball games: score runs, and prevent the other team from scoring runs.  I like to think of the categories that determine these factors as:

1. Offense
2. Starting Pitching
3. Defense
4. Relief Pitching

I suppose it’s obvious that relief pitching is the least important of the four, simply because it is a factor in a much smaller percentage of each game.  Let’s go through each category and see which team has the edge.

1.  Offense:  Braves
In 2010, the Phillies were second in the NL in runs, and the Braves were fifth.  However, the Braves have replaced Troy Glaus in the lineup with Freddie Freeman, and they’ve replaced Melky Cabrera with Martin Prado.  Prado’s ZiPS Rest-of-Season projection for 2011 is .290/.339/.432; last year Melky hit .255/.317/.354.  This is a dramatic upgrade.  Freeman’s ZiPS RoS projections are .269/.337/.443; last year Glaus hit .240/.344/.400.  Another very significant upgrade.  Moreover, the Braves have also addressed the biggest systematic weakness of their offense over the past four years in acquiringDan Uggla.  Uggla’s ZiPS RoS projection is .252/.337/.458.  The power upgrade cannot be disputed, and is precisely what kept the 2010 offense from being tops in the league in runs (they led the league in OBP but were just 10th in slugging).  Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, Prado, and Nate McLouth are all pre-prime and should be expected to improve over last year.  Chipper Jones is older and won’t be very durable, in all probability, though when he’s in the lineup, he will continue to get on base at a ~.400 clip.  Meanwhile, the Phillies have lost Jayson Werth, their second best hitter from 2010, and are without Chase Utley, their best hitter, indefinitely.  Werth has been replaced with Ben Francisco, who is probably about half as good as Werth offensively.  Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Carlos Ruiz, Placido Polanco, and Ryan Howard are past their primes and one year older.  Shane Victorino is 31 and exiting his prime as well.  The Phillies’ offense has clearly gotten quite a bit worse on offense while the Braves have improved considerably.  I think the realistic expectation would be for the Phillies to finish around the middle of the NL in runs scored this season, and for the Braves to finish either first or second.

2.  Starting Pitching:   Phillies
The Phillies have an absolutely dominant starting rotation and the Braves have a very, very good starting rotation.  This category isn’t really close, either, though the Braves do have depth on their side.  Whether or not the Phils’ rotation winds up being historically good, it will almost certainly be better than the Braves’.  If Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, or Jair Jurrjens is injured, the Braves will call up Mike Minor, who is nearly as good as Lowe and probably every bit as good as Jurrjens right now.  If Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, or Cliff Lee goes down, the Phillies will call onKyle Kendrick to start, who is so much worse than any of those four pitchers I don’t need to make an argument.  But we have no reason to assume that one of the “big four” starters for the Phils will go down, so the edge is very clearly and undeniably for the Phils in this category.

3.   Defense: Tie
In 2010, the Phillies were 4th in the NL in defensive efficiency, while the Braves were 6th.  But the Phillies are without Chase Utley and Jayson Werth, their two best defenders from last season, while the Braves have upgraded dramatically at first base and in left field, and can realistically expect a big improvement in center field (Melky played CF when McLouth was out for a few months and was almost historically bad there).  Dan Uggla is a pretty big drop-off from the combo of Prado and Omar Infante at 2B, which is a premium defensive position.  Assuming Ibanez and Chipper Jones both get worse due to extreme aging, and assuming Utley comes back by June, I’m willing to call this a tie.  The homer in me believes that the Braves are probably better than the Phillies on defense, but realistically, it’s quite close.

4.   Relief Pitching:  Braves
I don’t think I need to do a full breakdown here.  In all probability, the Braves will have one of the five best bullpens in all of MLB this year, and they have plenty of power arms on the farm in case of injuries.  The Phillies should have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, assuming Jose Contreras and Brad Lidge are out for a while (and really, even if they’re not).  Apart from Ryan Madson, the Phillies bullpen is pretty bad.  Most of the so-called “experts” have been saying that the Braves’ bullpen is probably the biggest strength of the team, and I find it hard to argue with that, though I actually think it should be the offense.

At the time of this posting, the Braves are six games back of the Phils in the loss column.  I don’t see any way that can possibly continue.  This NL East race is going to be a dogfight till the end of September, and I see the Braves coming out on top.  Even if Utley is back and healthy from June-September, the Phillies won’t score enough runs and won’t be able to close out enough games to take the division this year.  The Braves are better positioned to withstand injuries and are a far more balanced team.  These are very possibly the two best teams in the National League, but the Braves are better.  Anything written on the internet is indelible, so check back with me on October 1st and we’ll see who was right.

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