Braves’ 2010/2011 Offseason Summary

We need a little content up here again.  It’s been a while.

Barring an unlikely backup shortstop or backup center fielder acquisition, the Braves’ offseason moves are done.  The big splash was made early this offseason with the acquisition of Dan Uggla.  There is no doubt that the Braves got excellent value for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn, particularly because Uggla fills a glaring weakness for the Braves: right-handed power.  The move clearly made them significantly better for 2011.

The problem comes in when we consider the extension that Uggla signed on January 4th.  The deal extends him beyond 2011 (in which he was arbitration-eligible) for four additional years, through his age 35 season, for a total cost of $62 million.  As has been reported by Peter Hjort and others, Uggla does not play good defense at second base and is a prime candidate to see his offensive abilities fall off a cliff.  He is precisely the type of player who you’d like to avoid signing to a long-term deal.  His value is tied inextricably to his ability to hit for power, which is one of the first skills to decline as a player enters his mid-30′s.  This deal is unlikely to be a disaster for the Braves, however, because $12.4m isn’t going to be overpaying as long as he’s a 2.5-3 win player.  I think the most likely outcome here is the Braves get a great deal in years one and two of this deal, a fair deal in year three, a crummy deal in year four, and an albatross in year five.  Maybe the need for right-handed power now and in 2012 makes the albatross that will be 2015 worth it.  Maybe Uggla slides over to third base or (my preference) into left field after Chipper Jones retires, and is somewhat better there than he is up the middle–a distinct possibility.  Maybe his offensive decline doesn’t begin until 2014, which automatically turns this into a great deal for the Braves.  Maybe.  But sitting here in February 2011, this doesn’t look like a good deal.  Uggla as a one-year rental at $10m seems like it would have been the better bet.  Because maybe this deal looks like a disaster in two or three years, and you have an albatross contract on your hands.

The Braves’ other offseason moves were mostly head-scratching.  With Stephen Marek, Craig Kimbrell, Johnny Venters, and Eric O’Flaherty all working for slave wages, the Braves looked like they’d be all set to have a dominating and exceedingly cheap bullpen in 2011.  Instead, they gave $4m to George Sherrill, Scott Linebrink, and Scott Proctor.  Granted, that’s not a ton of money, even if you’re a mid-market team like the Braves.  But it seems really unnecessary.  I like the Sherrill signing fine, because it is definitely useful to have three lefties in the bullpen, and Sherrill joins O’Flaherty to give the Braves two really effective LOOGY’s.  Linebrink can still be useful and the White Sox picked up the majority of his contract, so that’s OK too.  The problem is Scott Proctor.  He has never been any good in his whole career, and now he’s been hurt for two straight years.  I just don’t understand that one.

For position players, the Braves largely stood pat.  They got Uggla to play second base, and they signed Joe Mather as the primary right-handed pinch-hitter (apparently Mather can back up all three outfield positions passably and also first base), letting Matt Diaz go to free agency, whereupon he signed with the Pirates.  They were unable to move Kenshin Kawakami and Nate McLouth, so everything else pretty much will stay the same from 2010.

This was a playoff team that had a better Pythagenpat record than the Phillies in 2010.  In 2011, only Chipper Jones is a candidate for significant age-related regression, and only Tim Hudson is a candidate for regression-to-the-mean regression.  Dan Uggla’s acquisition should help the offense.  Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward are one year closer to their primes.  There is much to be excited about for a Braves fan as we head towards Spring Training.  The Braves project as probably the second-best team in the entire National League in 2011.  Unfortunately, the best team in the N.L. is in their division: the Philadelphia Phillies.  This should be a great year, another Wild Card year, another playoff year for the Braves.  As a fan, you gotta love that.  And of course with the #2 or #3 farm system in baseball (depending on whom you ask), the Braves’ long-term outlook is rosy as well.  Pitchers and catchers report in just 12 days!

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