The Braves’ 2011 Outfield

Caveat: I realize I shouldn’t be thinking about next year in the middle of a pennant race, but it’s impossible not to.  If you only care about this year and don’t wanna think about this issue till next year, just skip this post.

In 2011, the Braves will have Jason Heyward in right field.   The other two outfield positions are a currently a mess.

Nate McLouth isn’t really adequate as a center fielder even when he’s healthy and “right” at the plate.  And in 137 PA at AAA, Mclouth has hit .237/.350/.404 and played lousy defense in CF.  He was horrible defensively before his demotion and hit even worse, as we all know.  I do think he could be adequate defensively in left field, but I can’t see him hitting enough even in a platoon situation with Matt Diaz out there for that to be a good solution for LF in 2011.  He’s guaranteed $7m for the 2011 season and it’s hard to imagine the Braves getting anything at all for him in a trade without eating nearly all of that money.  It’s impossible to predict what they’ll do with any accuracy, but my best guess is they’ll DFA him.  Yes, they’ll still have to pay him that money, but it’s a sunk cost at this point.  No need to compound the problem by allowing him to play for the Braves next year, thereby taking wins away from the team.

As for Matt Diaz, he will be eligible for arbitration for the last time next season.  He shouldn’t and won’t be playing every day for the Braves.  Depending on what else happens with the outfield situation, he could wind up in a platoon again or on the bench.  Possibly a cheap outfield bat like Luke Scott could work, or bringing back Eric Hinske, or as I mentioned above, platooning with Nate McLouth (who has never ever been able to hit left-handed pitching, not even when he was “good”, but maybe Frank Wren will want to give him a shot against righties).   Diaz will probably provide enough value even in limited usage to be worth his arb contract, and I think the Braves will bring him back.  How much playing time he gets will be a function of whom else the Braves bring in for the outfield.

Omar Infante, who has a cheap club option for 2011 that the Braves will definitely pick up, will probably have to start in the outfield if he’s going to start at all, as I think Chipper Jones will return as expected from his injury (his rehab schedule has him back to 100% health by February).  With Alex Gonzalez, Martin Prado, and Freddie Freeman completing the infield picture, there’s not a spot for Infante that I can see.  Infante has started just 21 games in his career in center field and has posted an ugly -2 DRS in that small sample.  It’s obvious he is not the answer in center field.  His .393 BABIP this year also indicates that his ridiculous offensive numbers are largely the result of luck on balls in play, and I think he’ll go back to his super-utility role for next year.  I’m not saying he 100% can’t or shouldn’t start for the Braves, just that I don’t think it’s likely.  He’s been more than adequate defensively at shortstop throughout his career, with a +13 DRS over 187 starts there, so I suppose it’s possible the Braves will decline the option on Alex Gonzalez and start Infante there all year.  That seems doubtful to me, though.   Infante could also platoon in left field (where he’s been adequate defensively) with Diaz, as Diaz hits lefties very well and Infante has a reverse platoon split and has always hit righties better.  That doesn’t seem like a very good solution either, nor a likely one.

There are no other in-house options for the outfield.  Melky Cabrera would receive about $5m in arbitration if the Braves were to offer it, so they won’t.  Rick Ankiel has an astronomical $6m mutual option for next year with a $500k buyout, so the Braves will definitely be letting him go.  And Jordan Schafer has utterly fallen apart as a prospect this year and will either take a year or two to get back to being a major league caliber player, or more likely, be out of baseball altogether.

Obviously center field is the real issue here.  If the Braves were to make a trade for or sign a real center fielder who can actually man that position defensively (and not be a total black hole on offense), then they could make do with what they have or sign someone pretty cheap and come up with some combination that would be fine in left field.  The production they’re likely to get from Heyward in right is more than solid, so if the other two outfield positions are just league-average both offensively and defensively, that’s fine.  The problem is, who would they be able to get to play league-average center field?  Such players are exceedingly rare.

There isn’t one single free agent CF this offseason who is going to be even close to league-average.  By my count, there are only two outfielder free agents who would be better than what the Braves can get from Infante / McLouth / Diaz: Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford.  Neither of them is a center fielder, and both will come at a steep cost.  I can’t imagine the Braves being able to scrape together enough money to sign either of them.  The only significant money the Braves have coming off the books is to Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner, and that total is probably entirely eaten up by all the arbitration raises coming to the younger players.  Additionally, the Braves’ payroll has dropped by $20m since 2008.  I think it’s far more likely that they will continue to decrease payroll than they will change directions and increase it.  And of course it’s also well-documented that the Yankees are keen on signing one of these two and making Brett Gardner their fourth outfielder, and you’re not going to out-bid the Yanks.  If that were to happen, you’d be bidding against every other team in MLB that needs an outfielder for whichever one the Yankees didn’t get.  So Crawford and Werth are almost certainly pipe dreams.  That leaves the always ludicrous-until-they-happen trade possibilities.

My first choice would be Colby Rasmus.  There are rumblings that Tony La Russa has some pretty strong animosity towards Rasmus and that only one of the two will be with the Cardinals in 2011.  If the Cards choose to bring back La Russa, it sounds like they’ll explore the trade market for Rasmus.  He’s been worth +6 and -1 DRS in center field the last two years, so he’s definitely league average or better there.  And this year, he’s hitting .268/.352/.501 which is excellent.  He’s also only 23 years old, with one more year at near league-minimum salary and then three arbitration years.

Current A.L. East outfielders B.J. Upton, Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury would be intriguing options.  All three could play CF, but Ellsbury doesn’t play it well.  One thing that would complicate any of those potential deals is the fact that Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein, and Andrew Friedman are probably all more shrewd than Frank Wren is.  I think they would see our center field options and drive up the price, knowing that our needs were dire.  Still, any of those three would be welcome upgrades to Nate McLouth in CF every day.   Ellsbury and Upton would be bottom-of-the-order hitters, while Gardner would probably bat leadoff for the Braves.  Ellsbury is entering his age 27 season and coming off a year lost to injury, so he’s intriguing as a “buy low” candidate.  However, he might be so dreadful in CF that acquiring him wouldn’t be worth it.  Both +/- and UZR have always hated his CF defense, and since he isn’t a fabulous hitter, that’s a tough combo.  Still an upgrade over internal options, but not much of one.  He did post a .355 OBP last year with 70 stolen bases in 82 attempts, so there’s an outside chance he could be a table setter.  Upton’s defense was among the best in the game in CF prior to this year, and he’s still only 25, so he’s probably valuable even if he doesn’t hit much.  Consecutive down years offensively make him a possibility for the Rays to want to move and another possible “buy low” candidate.  Gardner is the best option offensively, as he’s hit .286/.387/.383 this year and stolen 37 bags in 44 chances.  For his career, he’s been excellent defensively in left field and above average in CF.  You’d be buying a bit high on him, though, and it remains to be seen if the Yankees will sign Crawford or Werth for corner outfield and keep Granderson as their everyday CF.  So I’d call Gardner the least likely for the Braves.

Frankly, none of them are particularly likely.  These types of young, impact players are rarely moved while they still have years of team control left.  And when they are, it’s often at the expense of top prospects, which the Braves are not likely to want to move.  To sum up: The Braves are in bad shape for 2011 regarding the left and center field positions.   CF in particular is going to be awfully tough to solve.  Good luck, Frank Wren.  You’re going to need it.

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